MY CHIOCE

Thanks for engaging me in a debate. Your raised a good point about reminding ourselves of what it is we’re fighting. 

GEJ has my vote not because I belief he has solved everyone of our problems but I belief he has put  us on a path towards solving many of them, tomorrow we will get to decide between that and the promise of GMB. But I believe leaders have the misfortune of not being in a position to ripe the blessings of what they did and some have the luck of receiving Glory for the works of others, but leadership isn’t in a vacuum, the last four years can not be removed from the last 30 years. Series of events will always bring us to the position we are in. 

For lack of sufficient time, I will quickly address some of of your concerns that stood out. But first  draw your attention to the intention behind my article. This election cycle, there  has been especially on social media, a determined effort to serve the agenda that GEJ has spent 5 years doing nothing; and GMB has the magic wand to in the next four years fix everyone of our problems this simply is not true. Opponents of GEJ can disagree on his achievements, you can make the argument we didn’t get value for money or even argue, his order of priority wasn’t right but you can’t deny what the man achieved. You raised two points on why he used $60 million to build a steal mill and why he built universities instead of attending to the present ones, but went ahead to make the point that Buhari didn’t build a railway because he prioritised other sectors above the railway, I’m left confused here, so GEJ can’t make the choice  to prioritise other needs above others but GMB can. Might I point out that in the case of GMB not building the lagos Metroline, it was not as if he refused to approve the contract and used the money for something else. What he did was cancel a contract which had already been paid and paid a further fine after the cancellation, making Nigeria loose money. Don’t you think a better choice would have been to restructure the project in such a way that it will be downsized to cover the amount already paid and at least allow certain areas have the metro line instead of simply loosing money. 

Every leader will encounter the situation of diverse problems, limited funds and running time; and in a a winner takes all democracy an opposition more worried about the next election than governance; How leaders elect to spend their time and funds are priorities and every few years we get to vote them out if we disagree with the priorities they set for themselves. 

I think institutions need to fight corruption, scaring away people from the country and indiscriminately sentencing people to Jail doesn’t solve the problem. To address Corruption in an holistic manner you need to first identify the key areas of corruption in public service and bring lasting solutions to ensure those areas are blocked. One of which is the issue of Ghost workers through the diligent implementation IPPIS programme; 160 Billion Nigeria has been saved by this programme. Agencies enrolled into the IPPIS platform can no longer employ ghost workers nor can workers draw salary from more than one ministry or agency, who ever becomes President after GEJ will never have to worry about the issue of ghost workers again. Another is the area of government revenue; with the Single treasury account, heads of agencies can no longer touch government revenue at point of collection, reporting what they like. Again, this is one area of corruption no other President can worry about. There are other areas of corruption, through overinflated government contracts and heads of agencies misappropriating  budget sub-heads, that haven’t been addressed by the GEJ administration yet but plans are under way for a central procurement platform to ensure savings. However, GMB hasn’t brought up specific solutions to them. You mentioned that giving the EFCC and ICPC power of attorney doesn’t help. If you think allowing them the independence to decide who to try in court without political interference is not a good thing, then I simply disagree with your view on that. You talked about the issue of Farouk Lawan, I hope you know his case is still in court and it was that new powers of the EFCC that you think is useless that allowed us get to this point.

On the issue of the Missing NNPC money; no money has ever been missing. I will recommend you read the Ex Gov’s letter on the issue again, you will find the issues he raised where around misappropriation and the legal authority NNPC has to spend monies at source, set up subsidiaries and some Joint Venture agreements that pegged the value of crude at certain prices resulting in a situation where the FG didn’t receive an uptick in revenue when oil prices went up. These Joint ventures dated back to the Abacha regime. The Issue was hijacked and made into another case of Jonathan stealing, disallowing us to debate and interrogate the real issues the Governor was raising; up until today the debate is still not being had. 

Every year about above 1 Million Nigerians right Jamb examinations seeking admissions into University; Nigerian Higher institutions however can only admit collectively 450,000 students each year. So, Nigeria higher education institutions have both a quality and quantity issue. By establishing new Federal universities GEJ has set us on a path towards addressing the quantity issues. With regards the quality issue, this is a topic where there has been insufficient debate this election cycle. But it is worthy to note that 65B Naira has been left laying un-accessed by universities at TETFUND to fix the quality issue.  This money is set aside for existing universities to rehabilitate structures.  An honest debate about fixing the quality of Nigerian Higher institutions will include the fact that students pay little to no fees resulting in a massive revenue shortfall that government can not meet; this fact ASUU has refused to accept; I might point out that Fashola, an APC superstar believes in this point, reason why he increased LASU fees twice during his tenure. ASUU doesn’t want fees to be increased so more revenues will come to Universities to address the state of their infrastructure, 65B apportioned from the education tax has not been accessed by the universities to help in solving the Problem.

An argument the APC keeps making is the economy is in decline; again this is simply not true; the government only creates an enabling business environment; businesses which are the drivers of the  economy and main employers of labour, judge the environment and climate created by government, they do this while projecting what the future might look like and if they feel in their opinion there is potential for growth they expand their activities and make investments; this is basic business practise and how economies work; if businesses feel there isn’t potential for growth they hold onto to their asset, downsize or move to other countries that they think will provide a greater return on investment. Giving an overview of private sector investment is simply to provide evidence for this basic business theory.

Military readiness is in question here because the Niger Delta Militancy you claim was handled was actually handled through a political solution; recall the Amnesty programme.

You speak of borrowing as if it is a bad in it’s entirety, in business we’re thought never to invest a company without a bit of debt because it shows the future is not being cared for; what you should preach instead is the best application of debt to ensure maximum return on investment for the country.  Again Fashola is financing his railway project through debt, many APC states continue to access the bond market to finance projects which in their opinion are necessary and urgent.

When stella Odua started remodelling airports, the opposition asked why she is using BASA funds, then it was, the work is being done but at a substandard level and she is awarding contracts to herself. Now you question if the work is being done at all. Why evidence pf this achievement will be to simply present the first achievement of Goodluck you mentioned.

2003 or any year before and after is in question because we didn’t just wake up today and all these problems appeared, neither did Goodluck come to demolish schools, bomb away power plants, destroy tarred roads or introduce corruption into the system. All our problems are a result of collective inaction that pre-dated the Jonathan administration. Asking and identifying the people responsible will ensure we never allow them access to positions of leadership again.

The privatisation was to enable Private sector investment to lead the growth in the sector. 

Since then we have gone from 2,300 Megawatts of active generation capacity to about 3,500. We have gone from an Installed generating capacity of about 4,000 to about 5,800 as of yesterday. 

The difference between active capacity and installed is occasioned by pipeline vandalism, Gas Shortage and Transmission capacity. I mentioned steps Government is taking to address those issues. 

The decades old problem of Gas availability is being addressed. Tariffs have been adjusted to ensure distribution companies generate enough revenue to drive the investment in the sector. The Gas prices have also been adjusted. The CBN has given out loans to power generation companies to off set their gas liabilities at 3% interest. This was done to encourage gas supplies to keep the pipes open and ensure banks continue to offer credit to the GenCO's.  The GenCO's continue to receive support from the CBN through a New intervention to address critical issues in that sector. Over 100 billion has been accessed so far. 

The NSA is now set to deploy Electronic surveillance systems to protect Gas and Petroleum pipelines from the daily acts of vandalism. This singular act has continued to ensure Nigeria is not generating at installed capacity. 

It takes anything between 2-4 years to build a power plant; Depending on it’s size. 

 In the next 2-3 years many of such power plants will come on stream. One will hope by then efforts to ensure gas availability, improved evacuation rates (transmission capability) and protection of pipelines will ensure that power plants go from installed to active pretty quickly. 

With regards the savings issue. We all know hoe GEJ and NOI kept calling for savings through Excess crude and Sovereign wealth fund but Governors refused (Including APC governors). They even sued the FG to court. 

 Economist will probably agree with me when I say the Naira weaken is a significant opportunity. 

This was my reply to a frnd yesterday who said our own economy is in decline and raised the issue of Naira devaluation. 

"

But our growth rate is positive. There is no data i can find to support the narrative of decline. 

Even the crash of the currency is a blessing in disguise. 

An opportunity for the country to engage in local production for consumption and exportation. 

Since imported goods will be to expensive. And when we export it will be priced cheaply abroad. 

you know China continues to fight to keep her currency artificially low so she can consume her goods and her exports will remain cheap And America is angry over the growing strength of the dollar. It's killing Jobs, coz exports are too expensive for other  countries”

The President admitted his failure on Boko Haram. They initially misjudged the situation but that again goes to show the root in the system, the failure of the intelligence services to properly guide government. Since when the problem was fully diagnosed the military made great efforts to meet up. Special forces were trained and new hardware purchased. These things take time. As we speak some of the trainers are working with soldiers in the field in a continued effort to end Insurgency ones and for all. The Northeast fund of 84B Naira, safe schools initiative and the Presidential Initiative for the North east will all be quickly deployed in a massive rebuilding effort once relative security has been established in the region.

I had a productive debate with two friends over my article and they made the point that for them the choice is between the lesser of two evils; this point was made by the Economist in their endorsement of Buhari, so I suppose for me GEJ is my lesser of two evils and for you it’s GMB. 

As you said I’m entitled to my view and you’re also but I think in this election cycle an opportunity was lost to have a serious debate about the direction of our country by holding absolutist views. While in truth is in our best interest to push the candidates to tell us the truth and ask tough and necessary questions of them; we failed in this responsibility as citizens, holding a winner takes all mentality and becoming over protective of the candidates instead of Nigeria. 

Perhaps you and I after the election can get together and start a blog and ask questions of whomever we elect tomorrow as our leader. 

I enjoyed our debate, I look forward to continuing after the elections; Nigeria needs the help of active citizens.

I hope both our readers remember Nigeria in their prayers tonight for peace after the election; for tomorrow is merely a coronation, God has already anointed. 

NEXT FOUR YEARS

On March 28th Nigeria will have a question to answer; who will we trust with the stewardship of our Nation for the next four years? While the contest is between 14 candidates, the race to the villa is actually between two men. I will highlight the records of GEJ in office, examine GMB's past record and question if APC can bring the needed change to Nigeria.

After 5 years of the GEJ presidency we can all attest to these facts:

The establishment of 12 New Federal Universities in the country, 150 new Almajiri Schools to cater and educate thousands of neglected children in the Northern part of the country, also the rehabilitation of Nigeria’s railway transportation which was, until now, regarded as the non-existent link in the nation’s development chain: People and goods can now move from Makurdi - PH, Lagos - Kano, PH - Enugu. In the next few months, the new railway service from Kaduna to Abuja will become operational, allowing civil servants to live in Kaduna and work in Abuja.

The import bill of the nation is down from 1.1 trillion Naira to 650 billion Naira. For the first time since inception, major new capacity is being added to the Abuja airport plus new international terminals being built in Kano, Enugu, Lagos and Port Harcourt.

All airports have been remodeled for greater efficiency with complete radar coverage system fully installed. The ports are operating 24 hours a day. 

The second Niger Bridge has been concessioned to Nigeria’s most serious construction company, Julius Berger. Completion is set in four years with all the milestones for the first year completed.

The Lagos-Ibadan expressway is finally receiving the needed attention through concession to Jilius Beger and work is moving at a sustainable pace. About a Month ago a $60 million Steel Mill was commissioned in Sagamu, Ogun State. Each year the economy continues to grow with CNN Money projecting a growth of 7.1% this year. There are some people who in the face of clear evidence will deny these achievements.

Let us now look at the private sector and the effects of the enabling environment that has been created for them by this administration.

Dangote is building a 650,000 barrels per day refinery, thus by 2017 Nigeria will become a net exporter of petroleum products. By 2017 Nigeria will no longer import Sugar again.

PAN is now assembling Cars in Nigeria and for the first time is our history cars are now being designed and produced in Nigeria. KIA, Hyundai and Nissan are all working towards establishing car assembling plants in Nigeria.

Tony Elumelu is investing one billion dollars into the power sector; Abdulsamad Rabiu is expanding his cement and real estate investments. 

VLISCO (Makers of the high end Super Wrapper) have signed an MOU to build a textile plant in Nigeria. Churchgate group is building a 2,000 Mega watts electricity generation plant Kogi.

Everywhere you turn and almost on a daily basis investor lay ambitious plans to invest in Nigeria; these are some of Nigeria’s most successful business men; PAN, Hyundai, Nissan and Kia global brands, are we now saying that this men and companies will risk their hard earned resources and invest in a country whose economy is in decline? 

Now some might still doubt and reject clear evidence of this administrations contribution to the growth and development of our country; so let me present one more evidence of achievement, we can all agree that since the coming of Jonathan the very important pillars of democracy, Free speech, freedom of association and freedom of assembly has been accessible to all Nigerians. Dissent is no longer punished with the iron fist of government; no Nigerian politician is on self or imposed exile. 

Now let us go back to this corruption and Insecurity issue. The fair members of opposition will accept achievements of GEJ and say he has failed in those two areas and doesn’t deserve re-election because of this. This is a valid claim.

My first question is simple, what clear and detailed policy has the opposition presented to Nigerians about the cardinal points of their campaign. Their answer will be to claim that GMB fought corruption; if he fought corruption successfully, then why are we still battling with it today? 

First I will present GEJ’s record against corruption and then the opposition’s. He has made the EFCC truly independent by giving them the power to prosecute without recourse to the Minister of Justice.

From March 1st, all revenue accounts in Deposit money banks will be closed and a single account domiciled in the CBN; what does this mean? Historically over 50% of government corruption takes place when revenue generating agencies of the government under report the revenue they send to government coffers, from March 1st this will no longer be possible as government will have the revenues generated directly and first; this is the way to set up institutions to fight corruption. 

My question is simple, what steps did GMB take as Head of State to ensure Nigerians never have to worry about corruption again. Which institutions did he step up and strengthen, which reforms did he carry out, which policies did he implement.

They say GEJ is not equipping the military or training them. Where in the world has military readiness been established during war time? Instead of blaming GEJ we should ask the people who were in-charge during peace time what they did to prepare the Nigerian Military against future threats. 

After all, Boko haram gave us a clear warning about the dangers we face in the north with regards to violent extremism. They share the same ideologue with Maitatsine, so my question for the General is: after crushing Maitatsine with military force, what national policy did he implement to educate Northerners and ensure the youths in the region never again are susceptible to people preaching messages of hatred and violence. Which policy did you implement in Agriculture, railway and Automobile industrialization to ensure that Nigerian youths are employed and never fall to the adage “An idle mind is a devils workshop”.

The General should answer if he came up or at least try to come up with a National Intelligence  strategy to monitor preachers of religious extremism and curtail them before they become a national problem. Instead the General used force to handle the problem and left the underling issues that caused the problems to future generations. Is this how responsible leadership should be?

Oh and I still have one more thing; since the General has said he will surround himself with brilliant minds  that mean well for Nigeria, let us look into some of these people.

Let us start with a Governor who was a former Minister of Defence; Mr. Governor, the present Boko Haram was formed in 2002, you became Minister of Defence in 2003. What did you do as Minister to prepare the Nigerian army and intelligence unit against future and present threats?

What review did you carry out about the Army’s readiness in terms of training or arms stockpile to ensure that when a threat comes up against the nation, the Army is ready to defend and protect Nigeria? Mr. Governor did neither of those things, if now he will claim he was not funded adequately, did he get up to protest or resign his sit in the cabinet?

Let us go to the Sitting Senator and former Governor, he has all of a sudden become a change figure but the political dynasty he inherited has been in control of the politics of the state since our return to democracy, eight of those years he served as governor. The sitting Governor, today was imposed by him on his people, so what exactly is he changing? For the acclaimed National Leader of the party I here this story about the massive looting he supervised to speak for it self. click here

After 16 years of PDP rule perhaps the argument can be made for change, but the only party that has a chance of bringing that change instead of electing as her Presidential candidate a new voice and a transformative figure, they elect one of the most divisive figures in Nigerian political history. They elect a man whom in his 20 months as Head of state left no tangible legacy or presented a clear vision towards his planned legacy. They elected a man who since leaving office has done nothing to further improve Nigeria and himself.

And this is the party of intellectuals like Nasir El-Rufai. Babatunde Fashola, Kayode Fayemi; instead of nominating one of these people all with proven legacies, they nominate a man with none. I was surprised to find out that APC has Prof Osinbajo as a member and they nominate Buhari.

And they come to tell us they are changing Nigerian. You nominate a candidate that you all have admitted 4-8 years ago is too old for the Presidency, you nominate a candidate not based on his track record, his clear vision but based on zoning and the hope that the sentiments he always drives among the masses will deliver the presidency to you. I’m seriously confused, 4 years ago he was too old, 8 years ago he was too old; has he suddenly become young.

You say you want to bring change; I accept this, but can we please know what exactly you’re changing? Or, have you not heard the saying that when purpose is not defined, abuse is inevitable?

Now least we forget, all Nigerians accept that the root of the Boko Haram insurgency is the abject poverty and lack of education youths of the North east were allowed to grow up in; now let us ask the distinguished Retired General, as a former Governor of the North East Zone, what was the economic and educational strategy he implemented in the North East to place it on a part of sustainable development.

We need to ask ourselves honest questions, is not about changing Nigeria but the people that are talking about this change what did they do when they had the chance to reform our country, if the corruption in the system was fighting them back did they sound alarm bells alerting  Nigerians to the worrying state of affairs? 

I never thought as a people we can be this gullible; all these former Governors and Senators that are shouting change! What did they do with their positions to advance the cause of development in Nigeria? The way the political discourse is going you will think only the President constitutes the three arms and tires of government.

May God Almighty never allow anyone who failed to contribute to Nigerian’s progress to sit on any sit of leadership again!

May God Almighty grant Nigerians good leaders, whoever they are; God grant us these good leaders either we like them today or not.

I rest my case. 

Comments are welcomed through Haleemmahmood@yahoo.com or below in the comment section. 

twitter @haleem_mahmood

THE PROMISE OF A GENERATION: THE BURDEN OF THEIR OPPORUNITY

“Blessed is the man who perseveres under trial, because when he has stood the test, he will receive the crown of life that God has promised to those who love Him.” – James 1:12

 It is they who are quick and eager to do good works to outdo others and it is they who are the foremost of these (virtues and shall win the race) Q23: 61

 Say, ‘ O my people! Go on working according to (the utmost of) your capacities and positions. Surely, I am doing (my best)! Soon you shall come to know for whom I (best) reward of this abode.’ Anyhow, the wrongdoers never attain their goal. Q6: 135

 Let me first express my humble gratitude to the editor and pioneer of this publication, Sadiq Waziri. He’s a friend and brother, a true gentleman and a purposeful person. He also remains the only person to make football interesting to even those that are not fans.

 A little over two weeks ago he asked me to one day write a piece about youth and our relation to success. At first it sounded easy enough but my impression soon changed when I began to think of the content of the piece; the magnitude that I soon realized the challenges had. I am not a successful person, I have little money in my bank account, I have no business, I have not been able to deceive a beautiful girl to date me talk more of marrying me. I don’t own an Aston Martin or a Benz or a BMW. HECK, I don’t own a car. What makes me then, a struggling undergraduate qualified to write on success. I found comfort in the words of Albert Einstein, “try not to become a man of success rather become a man of value.”

 The Nigerian youth today do not have hope of a better tomorrow. The declining conditions of schools have for too long been ignored, the lack of qualified teachers not been addressed, the fundamental reforms to allow for graduates to become entrepreneurs and job creators are not being implemented. This clearly spells doom for our nation, as it has been clearly understood by generations before that a country that doesn’t build its youths for the future has no future. In the face of this what can the Nigerian youth do? Should we pack up and move to neighbouring countries? Or leave our non-performing schools, return home and live out our despair? No! For I see out of this gloom a trail of light, I have hope for the future and faith in the Nigerian child, here is why and here is what we can do.

 God in his infinite wisdom has blessed a few percentage of the Nigerian youth with the resources to become successful and help lead a nation to greatness but we must first overcome the impediments in our way.

 The Nigerian child that has the opportunity to go to school, is being brought up with very limited principles: go to school, get a degree, graduate, get a job and find your way in the system. How wrong this is!

 For a society to exist and progress to be made there must be a mixture of the thinkers and entertainers, the leaders and followers, the job creators and the skilled labour. We cannot all be government workers or employees of oil multinationals, construction companies or banks.

 What then is our hope if we are not taught to explore our skills to their true God given potential? What is our hope when we have a system that offers no fall back mechanisms? No social net for those who fail. I answer that our hope should come from a belief in our abilities, a vision for a country we see and a dream for a future for our children, it should come from an unrelenting belief in a better Nigeria.

 So in plain English what can we do?

 We must first learn compassion; learn that riches do not determine success; that happiness comes from a fulfillment of dreams and living a purposeful life, not from owning the latest money can buy.

 For those of us who have an unbelievable talent in the arts or music, push to develop it, take a chance on yourself but also get the education that will allow you invest the fruits of that labor; we can clearly remember the stories of Don Jazzy who from nothing took a chance with music and was able to build a business empire for himself. Or that of Kanu, who dazzled us with his legwork and used riches earned to bring free medical care to those who never thought they could have any.

 We can all attest to how Fella, Lagbaja and many others used the medium available to them to shock the conscience of a nation and call for social change. How Idris was even able to get a reply from the President. I hear Charles Nkanga (SwaggKid) has an album out. I will be looking to buy copies of the CD’sm even though I don’t listen to music, he might be the next Wizkid and needs our support.

 We are all taught and told to be Bankers and Lawyers; Engineers and Doctors; clearly we can’t all be those things, but some of us have to be, so I ask my friends who are studying to be professionals in the universities of the world and that of Nigeria, to study with their damn best, earn your qualification, know your job, come back home and help lift a generation from poverty. If you’re a software engineer or IT student, don’t wait till you finish school, write an application or start making websites for people, resolve to make your way and not finish school to look for a job, little things done today can accumulate into the giant leaps that move us forward.

 For those interested in public service, broaden your horizons, learn from the different schools of thought, read vastly but understand that sometimes the best change comes from outside government and not always from within it. You should strive to get yourself the most balanced and current education possible, because what we need is not politicians but educated and exposed persons that just happen to serve in government. Our future of rapid development has no place for career politicians.

 To those who seek to be business owners, please hurry up, take a chance, get a loan from your parents and start us on a journey to full employment for our people.

 Many have said they don’t give a “Fuck” about Nigeria. I have a simple message: either give a fuck or end up working in a fucked country, marry and raise children in a fucked country and do your business in a fucked country. The choice is that simple and clear.

 If however you dream about a better Nigeria then stand up, voice your opinions, work with NGO’s, use available contacts to draw attention to the needy, vote wisely, decisions are made by those who show up.

 The trust deficit of our nation allows for many things to go wrong. I hear many small and large business owners complaining of staff members and managers who steal from the business till they run it to the ground, stupidly putting themselves in unemployment. The greatest value we have is the goodness of our name, we must above all else aspire to be honest and trustworthy people, without this simple but strong commitment, all government policies will fail and many businesses will shut their doors, keeping us as always many steps behind nations of the world.

 My friends, I am placing today the future of our nation in the hands of a few: the privileged few. We must look to the blessings of God, remember His words and commands; our wealth is not ours alone. We should enable to give the poor their right. We must look to the blessings of our affluent upbringing as a call to a greater mission, as an opportunity to learn from the best schools and use our knowledge and become the best doctors and Engineers, ethical lawyers and devoted citizens that will give their all to the project of a better Nigeria. This is the promise of our generation! If we stand up, show up, take risks, dream big dreams and remember the timeless values of humility, honesty and hard work then only greatness can lie ahead.

 Friends, let us be dreamers and try to live the promise of our potential, generations of Nigerians are counting on us and God willing the spirit of our great ancestors will live to guide us.

 One final thing let us be the generation that shames the bigots in our society. Let us rise above the dogmas and let us never fail in ensuring that whatever decisions we make are not made based on religious or ethnic lines. Let us use the blessing of our exposure and realize Nigeria for what she truly is; a nation blessed with people of different cultures, ideas and religions, blessed is our diversity- a great gift from God.

A LACK OF QUALITATIVE EDUCATION: NIGERIANS NUMBER ONE PROBLEM.

I wrote these pieces two years ago when asked to write on a political or economic problem in Nigeria. while the article is dated, the issues raised are still relevant and more critical today. 

In selecting a topic for this paper I decided on a problem in the Nigerian society ( my home country) that is both an economic and political one. Thus, find what I hope is a detailed analysis of the paralyzing lack of qualitative education in Nigeria.

After independence in 1960 Nigeria hard a large number of primary and secondary schools, with an emerging number of strong public universities that will soon start not only to serve Nigeria but also the sub-saharan region wonderfully well. All appeared to be well, with Nigerian schools producing internationally acceptable Engineers and other professionals alike, that will help build and serve Nigerian's growing number of industries. With huge investments going into Education and Agriculture, all seemed to be good until OIL was first successfully explored and production began; in the blink of an eye investments in Education declined sharply; with Oil the national priority all government resources were invested in the sector alone; at that time it wasn’t a problem, Nigerian primary and secondary schools still had qualified teachers, with well equip laboratories, the baby boomer generation had not been born yet and our universities still boasted of qualified Lecturers and Professors from all over the world, with population still under control, universities could still serve their students body well. And so government kept saying everything is alright and no body bothered to ask the question, HOW ABOUT IN TH E NEXT 20 YEARS AND BEYOND?


 Today with a lack of an educated work force and lack of schools to train the populace, Nigeria is brain draining herself. For example in the oil and gas sector over 60% of the top level work force from ground level Engineers are held by foreigns. With the 80% Nigerian populace working in the sector not trained in Nigeria. So in the countries main source of income, Nigerians are left out of running it because they do not have the required skills and education. When the Ministry of Petroleum began a partnership with the petroleum companies operating in Nigeria to start employing the services of Nigerian’s in their work force, in anticipation of the passage of the petroleum industry content bill, the partnership soon failed as there were no Engineers and Tacticians with the required skills to be to employed by the companies. 


 The Central Bank of Nigeria recently released monies for credit to farmers in the country in other to allow them increase production, thus, creating a food security net for the country and also bringing about economic growth. In the countries North, the region that feeds the nation, an insignificant number of farmers accessed the loan; in an investigation into this, it was found that most farmers had no basic knowledge on collecting loans from banks, most had no media access that will allow them get informed about the credit scheme; in this modern age we still have people with no basic education to allow them know the principles of business expansion and how loans from banks can help with that. This is in a country that is the 6th largest producer of oil.



 When the Central Bank governor made a statement that the National assembly of the nation spends 25% of the countries budget every year as its total overhead budget, an uproar was the result of his statement in the national assembly, this was followed by threats of impeachment and in the hearings that took place in the senate with the Central Bank Governor facing questions, to the amazement of the nation, the countries Senators and members of the house had no idea what an overhead budget meant. The legislature recently proposed a budget for the country that even the countries Minister of Finance categorized as unimplementable and had no reasonable economic policy backing it.

 What a lack of education has cost Nigeria is failed leadership; with our leaders uneducated on issues and policy thus resulting in a campaign of sentiment; and a populace without the required skills, training and education to challenge the leaders of the nation in the policies they set forth. This has created a political problem, with the government of the country failing to meet is responsibilities; a result of bad government policies built by a lack of solid education.


 WHAT CAN BE DONE?


The recent result of final year secondary students released, with only 1.3% passing indicates a national emergency, that will require massive work hours and huge amounts of resources to fix.
 
 A review of the university system must be done in oder to effectively pin point the loopholes in the system, with greater funding to be provided for the countries universities; funds that will allow them expand, employ new lecturers, build new infrastructure, continue stopped research.


 A student quota number most be enforced for all universities and adherence must be maintained.


 New universities should be built to meet up with the high demand, a result of the baby boomer generation and public private partnership should be done to ensure high, quality education in quantity in the nation.
 
 A phased approach should be taken to fix both secondary and primary schools. With the responsibility for their financing and regulation given to state and local governments. New equipment most be provided for schools, with an extensive provision for materials, like textbooks, Desks and tables, class boards and modern ICT facilities. A massive program to train teachers most be started, teaching should become a National honor and teachers must be paid comfortable salaries based on student performance. In consultation with other west african countries a review most be conducted, in order to change the existing secondary school finial year testing system, which encourages students to only remember but not to understand.


 If our universities are upgraded, our primary and secondary schools reformed, the country will be able to bring about growth in its economic and political sector. When people are empowered with skills, there are bound to do great things, Agricultural production will increase; as farmers will have knowledge about new farming techniques and market demand for their products; new industries will come to life, Nigeria will finally be able to control a high stake in the oil and gas sector and our leaders will be a new generation of knowledge empowered people; with skills needed to run a country; as they have passed through an electioneering process; drilled and elected by knowledgeable people, who finally elect their leaders not based on sentiments but based on who has the brains and strength to get the job done; these will be leaders that will finally address problems of infrastructure, power and many others in the county, providing the foundation to foster growth that will be powered by a new educated and skilled workforce.


 However, the will be huddles in the match to revamp the education sector; change and progress will take time but a lack of fast and quick success rate might kill political will. A large number of the adult population will not go back into the education system but this can be fixed with the building and equipping of vocational centers to allow adults pick up marketable skills. Special adults school can also be provided. There need to fix this problem is urgent, the stake has never been higher, recently Festo automation Germany said and I quote “ we have been looking for Mechatronics Engineers to employ in Nigeria but we have found none”. 

This is a problem that much be fixed it is not only an economic problem; it is not only a political problem, it is a matter of life and death. They will be huddles, they will be challenges but the problem will have to be addressed head on; a choice must be made between a future of strong economic growth, a new middle class, an effective democratic systems; a result of a largely educated workforce; or a future filled will conflicts; a future of economic stagnation, a future of imprisonment of the human brain, a future where the world will be headed towards the 22nd century and Nigerian we still be stock in the 20th century.

Our very survival depends on this. 

THE LATEST CBN BOMBSHELL

In an eloquent speech that we have come to expect from Sanusi Lamido our maverick CBN governor, project cure, the new currency regime to bring sanity into the financial system, reduce cost of currency maintenance and transaction was announced. The CBN GOVERNOR has always been a controversial figure, but on this given day he was set to avoid any. This all turned into a pipe dream when he declared, “It is our pleasure to inform you that a new high denomination will be introduced, it is the 5,000 note.” This as expected has generated concern in polity, many afraid of inflationary pressures and corruption, citing the crises of Germany and the Ghana re-denomination. Many have argued that the policy will also make the Naira valueless but I beg to differ and I will get to that in a moment.

First is the issue of corruption. I do not subscribe to the opinion that corruption will increase in Nigeria because of a 5,000 Naira banknote. A corrupt person is a corrupt person. The greed inherent in them will always find ways to manifest itself. The medium will always be found to transact- after all what the Farouk Lawan scandal has shown is that now bribery transactions are handled in the almighty dollar, creating a dollarization of our economy. In the fight against corruption, what we should concern ourselves with is the reform of the criminal prosecution process and the transparency in government operations.

The German crisis of the 1920’s was caused by the lack of wealth generation in the economy when Germany had to pay war reparations in gold and hard currency. This adversely affected the value of their currency and with no more gold reserves to back up the exchange rate the Whur government had to print higher denominations of banknotes to create wealth in the economy, to pay it’s workers. This scenario bears no relation to the current Nigerian situation. First, the CBN has a reasonable large foreign reserve to keep the Naira’s exchange rates within current margins. Second, there isn’t a lack of money in the system. A 5,000 Naira note is not being printed to fill a lack of wealth in the system but to represent the true value of daily transactions. We always like to compare ourselves with the US, UK and other European countries, so let us compare.  

Some have said that the US has only a 100 Dollar bill as its highest denomination. That is true, but a $100 bill= 16*1000 Naira bills. To put things in context, I can walk into Best Buy to purchase a printer for $100. To buy the same model of printer in Nigeria I will spend between 14,000-16,000 Naira, which requires 14-16 pieces of our highest denomination. Lets look at it from another angle. Will the fact that there is a 5,000 Naira note make MTN and GLO make their 1,500 and 1,000 Naira recharge card now cost 5,500 and 5,000 Naira? Or will it make it that I can no longer walk into Chicken Republic and come out smiling after spending 5,000 Naira? The true value of 5,000 Naira does not change with the introduction of a single banknote to cover the said amount.

It has been argued that this policy is against the cashless policy in operation. I beg to differ. The introduction of the cashless policy was because of the high cost of currency management in the country- put in excess of 190 billion Naira per annum. A 5,000 Naira note will simply allow banks to represent a larger amount of money while holding fewer banknotes. This helps the cashless policy because it reduces the amount involved in managing currency and the fact that if the comprehensive implementation of the policy continues then we will have fewer needs to hold 5,000 Naira notes. But in the mean time if someone wishes to transfer 20 million Naira by withdrawal and then deposit, he pays for the cost of his transaction and the bank will issue him bills in 5,000 note because this bill reduces the amount of time spent counting, vaults needed and cost of management. There is a difference between printing more money and printing a higher denomination to represent current monetary value.

I further argue that a higher banknote represents already existing economic realities. It does not represent a medium for inflation to increase in the system.

Another argument has been that we should re-denominate our currency instead of printing higher bank notes. This argument makes sense through the prism that we are an importer of goods and services and as a result we would want to make imports cheaper. This negates the long-term prospects of our economy. Nigeria should be a net exporter of foodstuff, manufactured goods and even petroleum products. It serves our economy better to have a low currency exchange rate to make our exports cheaper thus creating more employment at home. Unfortunately the policies to create this kind of economy do not fall under the purview of the CBN (see how China has made its currency artificially low...... No wonder countries are filled with Chinese products).

I further argue that the comparison with Ghana does not hold water, as their inflation rate was over 100% (ours 12%) at the time of re-domination and their exchange rate about 9900 Cedi-1 Dollar. Their economy was on its way to full dollarization at the time (note one of the objectives of the 5,000 is to reduce the rate of dollarization in the economy).

However, I hold some fears over the CBN policy as it affects the introduction of coins. My view is this: the introduction of new denominations in coin and their elimination in banknotes poses a higher risk to inflation. These small denominations are what majority of working class Nigerians use to carry out their transactions on a daily basis. If the common business people reject the coins this will inflate the cost of basic goods and transportation, causing harm to the bank account of the poor masses. 

However, I also believe that, since this time the banknotes will be withdrawn, i.e. 20 Naira and below, the chances of the coins being used are higher. The lack of banknote equivalents will force people to use the coins. This is only if Nigerians resist the almost certain attempt by transporters and petty traders to crank up prices of common goods. 

A friend asked me this: “In a scenario whereby people still reject the coins, does that mean that inflation will increase? E.g. price of pure water from 10 Naira to 50?” And I replied:

“Yes, inflation will increase in that scenario. But I think it is unlikely because when we had the 50kobo, 1 Naira and 2 Naira coins introduced, there wasn’t much in existence in daily transactions that those coins could singularly cover. As a result, their adoption was bound to fail but with the 5, 10 and 20 Naira coins, their values represent daily transactional needs of Nigerians. As a result the coins will be more adopted and seeing that their note equivalent will be withdrawn, this will force the use of the coins. 

For example from the bus stop I use to school, it costs 80 Naira by taxi to the school campus. This amount is usually paid with 100 or 200 Naira notes, making the usual change 20 or 120 Naira. I don't think students will keep quiet if taxi drivers increase this to 100 Naira just because they don't want to accept coins. So the rejection of the coins by petty traders and the likes will only be in existence if people don't stand against this in which case inflation will result.

Retuning to the 5,000 Naira note, it is worthy to note that Singapore, Germany and Japan have high denomination banknotes that are of higher value when compared to the dollar with their inflation rate low, with 2.8, 1.1 and -0.7% respectively. The highest denominations are 10,000 SGD, €500 and yen10, 000 respectively. (See inflation.eu)

It is pertinent to note that the US had large currencies of 1,000, 5,000 and others in circulation and were withdrawn when their need no longer existed. With our cashless policy, we are well on our way but in the mean time, a need must be covered.

The use of coins has been argued to not be in the culture of Nigerians. Through the decades of our existence we have polluted our culture with many things against the ways of our ancestors. Surely, we can be pragmatic enough to finally indulge ourselves in some good; coins are better for the environment, last longer and as a result reduce the cost of currency management.

A selective issuance process for the 5,000 Naira banknote should be implemented. It makes no sense for majority of banknotes in circulation in a small rural town to be large denominations while in urban and commercial cities for low denominations to be majorly issued.

I am not a student of economics and the opinions shared in this piece are plainly my uneducated opinion. As such I welcome all clarifications and corrections, please forward to haleemmahmood@yahoo.com. I am a student of the world and eager to learn from you.

All views are strictly personal.

P.S. You can find a copy of the Governor's speech here.

Haleem,

ILORIN-NIGERIA

26, AUGUST 2012